NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever face Connecticut Sun in first round of 2024 WNBA playoffs

It's official: Caitlin Clark and NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe Indiana Fever will meet the Connecticut Sun in the 2024 WNBA playoffs.

The Sun, a preseason favorite to contend for the WNBA championship, locked up the third seed by blowing out the Chicago Sky, 85-54, in the regular-season finale Thursday.

The Fever are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, lifted to the postseason by the play of Caitlin Clark, who is practically a lock to win the 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year award.

Indiana boasts one of the league's best veterans in guard Kelsey Mitchell, now in her seventh professional season. But no Fever starter has WNBA playoff experience, whereas the Sun and its core have made multiple deep postseason runs, including a trip to the 2022 Finals, where they lost to the Las Vegas Aces in four games. Earlier this season, the Sun traded for guard Marina Mabrey, a sharp shooter on the perimeter, in hopes of bolstering their title chances.

WNBA playoff format

In the WNBA’s playoff format, the sixth seed matches up with the third seed in the first round. All first-round matchups are best-of-three series, with the first two games being played at the home of the higher-seeded team; Game 3, if necessary, is played at the home of the lower-seeded team. 

This format means that lower-seeded playoff teams may not see the huge financial benefit from hosting a postseason game and, if they manage to steal a game on the road, it puts the higher-seeded team in the tough position of winning Game 3 in a hostile environment. 

So, No. 6 Indiana (20-20) will meet No. 3 Connecticut (28-12).

Indiana vs. Connecticut playoff schedule

➤ Game 1: Sunday, Sept. 22 at Connecticut, 3 p.m. ET on ABC

➤ Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 25 at Connecticut, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

➤ Game 3 (if necessary): Friday, Sept. 27 at Indiana, tip time TBA, on ESPN2

How has Caitlin Clark played vs. the Connecticut Sun this season? 

The Sun and Fever have met four times this year, with Connecticut holding a 3-1 edge. Here’s how Clark played in each of those games:

∎ May 14: Connecticut 92, Indiana 71 

• Clark stat line: 20 points (5-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-11 from 3), 3 assists, 2 steals, 10 turnovers

∎ May 20: Connecticut 88, Indiana 84

• Clark stat line: 17 points (5-of-11 shooting, including 3-of-7 from 3), 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 5 turnovers

∎ June 10: Connecticut 89, Indiana 72

• Clark stat line: 10 points (3-of-8 shooting, including 2-of-5 from 3), 2 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers

∎ Aug. 28: Indiana 84, Connecticut 80

• Clark stat line: 19 points (7-of-17 shooting, including 3-of-12 from 3), 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 7 turnovers

It’s worth pointing out that Indiana’s lone win over Connecticut this season came after the Olympic break, which has hugely benefited Clark and the Fever overall. Indiana has been one of the better teams since the WNBA resumed play in August, amassing a 9-4 record; Las Vegas is the only team Indiana did not beat this season. 

Caitlin Clark vs. DiJonai Carrington

In the playoffs, just like the regular season, Clark is likely to be guarded by Connecticut’s DiJonai Carrington, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Just 5-foot-11, Carrington is a superior athlete — it runs in the family, as her brother played eight seasons in the NFL — with long arms and quick feet who loves physical play. She and Clark have developed something of a rivalry this season, as Carrington has repeatedly complained to officials about Clark’s whining about foul calls.

Regardless, it’s clear Carrington knows how to defend Clark, as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year has averaged just 39% (20-of-51) shooting vs. the Sun in four matchups, and shot just 34% (12-of-35) from 3. Also, while Carrington has downplayed their individual matchup, it’s obvious Carrington takes pride in frustrating whoever she’s guarding and pressuring them into mistakes and rushed shots. 

The Sun boast the best defensive rating in the league and have a bunch of players with long wingspans who can harass Clark and Indiana’s other guards. If Carrington isn’t guarding Clark it’ll probably be either DeWanna Bonner or Alyssa Thomas, two veterans who also love to make life tough for opposing guards. 

Bottom line: Indiana has been playing great since the Olympic break, especially with the increased production from off guards Kelsey Mitchell and Lexie Hull. But the Fever have their work cut out for them. 

Email Lindsay Schnell at [email protected] and follow her on social media @Lindsay_Schnell